In this post, we are going to look at some examples of when our opponents are going to try and bluff us out of the pot and why these bluffs end up not making too much sense, we have also come up with a tip list for how to dissect these bluffs in your games.
When you are going to pick hands to bluff within a game of poker, you are going to want to tell a story that is believable on all three streets, typically if a story someone is selling doesn’t make sense it’s because they are bluffing.
Jason Mercier Vs Eric Koskas
This is a pretty strange hand from the start, with Jason Mercier having the chip lead of the EPT final table 4 handed he is looking to apply maximum ICM pressure to all the other short stacks so he opens UTG with 95o, definitely a questionable open raise, however there was a lot of meta-game between these two players and I’m pretty sure he just wanted to be in pots with Eric and play some post flop poker with his skill edge.
Eric makes an even looser play here by defending his Big Blind with T3o an absolutely terrible hand, this may have made a better 3 Bet steal attempt if he thought Jason was just raising any two in this spot as this hand is going to play terribly post flop.
To compound his error, Eric then checks blind out of position, which is almost ruling out any strong hands from his range that he may have been slow playing Pre Flop.
The Flop
Comes down as 5 J 6 Rainbow and Jason checks back his bottom pair after Eric’s dark check, not wanting to bloat the pot and just looking to get to showdown…
The Turn
Brings the 8 of clubs, the board gets a little wetter with any two clubs being a flush draw and any hand containing a 7 now being an open-ended straight draw and Eric now leads out for 220,000 chips, a large overbet betting around 1.6x pot here.
Now players will not make this move with a middling holding such as 89, A6, T8, so Eric has polarised his range here to complete monsters like two pair or complete air that are looking for folds. With such a large bet after Jason checking back the turn you would think he would size down a little looking to keep weaker holdings in and get value if he had a strong holding here… Jason calls this bet with his pair and straight draw and we are off to see what the river brings!
The River
Pairs the 8, meaning the straight and flush draws on the turn missed, two pairs like 56, J5, J6 are now counterfeited by the 8s pairing. So Eric has far fewer combinations of hands that would go for value on this river, he is representing hands like 79, 88, J8, 68 only now, which are Monsters and essentially the nuts on this run out.
Eric moves all in instantly as soon as the river card is revealed. This may have paid some part in Jason’s eventual call here and it’s worth noting in hands you will play against people, that when they are committed within there mind to winning the pot, even when a card that changes the board to quite a big extent hits and they already know what they are going to do on this card hitting, this can be a tell that they have already planned to bluff!
Surely if someone had a huge hand here on the river like quad 8s or a full house, wouldn’t they want to Hollywood a little and try and fain weakness?
Jason ends up not buying what he is selling, blocking some full houses like fives full and blocking 97 with the 9 in his hand he has decent blockers here to make this kind of call and ends up winning the tournament for €900,000!
Steve O’Dwyer Vs Roger Sippl
This hand is taken from a Heads up battle between Poker Pro O’Dwyer and a Businessman Sippl from a PCA high roller event.
Steve O’Dwyer has a large chip lead on the Amateur player at the beginning of the hand with blinds at 80,000/160,000 Sippl opens on the button to 450,000 with JTo, which is around a 3x raise, O’Dwyer defends with ATo from the Big Blind…
So far so good from both players, Sippl should be looking to play big pot poker vs someone who definitely has an edge vs him in the long run and O’dwyer is going to take lower variance lines such as flat calling with ATo here, whereas against other players he may push the action with this holding…
The Flop
The flop is a dry one with Q 8 8 Rainbow, meaning Sippl is going to want to bet hands like AQ and KQ and should look to check back all his Ace highs, Pairs lower than a Queen like QJ, JJ, TT, 99, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33, 22 and try and get to showdown with these middling holdings.
So even the beginning of this hand starts off with a bang, with a huge C-bet on this board of 750,000… This is a sizing that might make sense with hands that are either committing to this pot like AA, KK, QQ, A8, K8 and already makes less sense for hands like QJ, QT, Q9… as Sippl could be digging his own grave against stronger holdings in O’Dwyer’s hand as the Big blind defend has the nut advantage here with more combinations of 8x in their hands…
O’Dwyer ends up calling this bet as he is going to beat all C-bet bluffs, all gut shots and small pairs like 22-77 and hands like 99-JJ will not be able to fire again for fear of being beaten by the Big Blinds call which looks alot like a value hand of some sort be it a Queen, 8x, or just any other high card value hand or pocket pair…
The Turn
With our opponent having around a 1.3x pot to stack ratio on the turn, we can imagine him betting small here with all his value hands to make sure he can move all in on the river and get called wide as it will offer his opponent a nice price. After O’Dwyer continues to play in flow and checks the action over to Sippl he flips the script and checks back…
Now, this is a strange way to play any Qx or even an 8x hand, Why?
Well if we are in Sippl’s shoes and we are betting to protect our hand and get action from worse hands on the flop and the blankest of cards hits on the turn, meaning nothing changed… Why are we now happy to check the turn? Wouldn’t we still want to build the pot the same way we did on the flop…
Quite often players will do this as they are almost giving up with hands that still have a chance of hitting and winning the pot that they don’t want to get blown off of on the turn… This makes sense for Sippl’s hand here, as in his mind he could hit a 9, Jack or possibly even a Ten and win the pot on the river.
The River
The story changes once again! O’Dwyer once again checks to Sippl, looking to get to showdown with another blank hitting in the shape of the 3 of spades, completing only pocket 3’s out of Sippl’s possible holdings to a full house…
Rather than being happy to showdown a medium strength hand that may have decided to check back the turn, Sippl now decides he wants to wager all his chips and moves in for 1.3x pot betting around 3M into 2.5M
Which hands would Sippl do this with? QQ is possible for maximum value so too is A8 & K8, however, would he really bet this much on the flop with such a monster? One legitimate holding that would make sense is 33, betting the dry flop to protect his hand and then checking back the turn in case he is up against a hand like Qx and then betting for value on the river.
This is something that you will notice from your opponents occasionally is that they will only push all in on rivers with monsters or bluffs, some good players will not be afraid to push for value in spots like this with a hand like QJ or QT for example, however, this is not most players… So try and pick up on which players make tight check backs on rivers and if you are against them in pots and they bet large in a polarised spot you can bet that they will not be confident enough in their reads to for thin value with a merged bet like QT in this spot.
Those are two of the top Pros showing us how it’s done, with hesitant calls in spots where it just didn’t add up! Now let’s look at some tips as to how you can sniff out bluffs from your opponents at the tables.
Does it make sense?
Did the story they are telling drastically change with board texture or an action like a turn check as in the last example.
If so this could be the key to unlocking the secret of the bluff you are facing.
Is your opponent capable?
Some players will have shown a bluff before… if you have ever seen a bluff from one of your opponents and you can see them trying to bluff again, don’t be afraid to make the call as some players just love to bluff!
Timing Tells
As in the first example quite often players that are not aware of timing tells will bet fast with bluffs or with huge hands or take their time if they don’t have anything because they don’t want to bluff for example, so try and get a read by watching how your opponent plays their hands and pick up timing tells.
A stand out tell for less savvy players is the instant bluff, watch out for this one, it’s a gamblers favourite move.
Acting the Opposite
This in a way is blended with certain timing tells, as in the first example our opponent instantly moves all in, which on the face of it looks like extreme strength, however, we need to ask ourselves if our opponent is so strong why did he act straight away and why is he now standing up and acting as if he has us crushed to the people surrounding the game… these aren’t the actions of someone who wants to get called.
Quite often players will sell the fact they are strong by acting so, don’t buy what you are being sold is the golden rule in poker!
Adrenaline hit
Some action players will get a boost of adrenaline from making a big bluff and stand up or not be able to sit still in their chair, this can be the sign they are bluffing and just can’t stand sitting through it.
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