In this three-way all in, where we have a slightly below stack in a hyper-turbo, we look at whether we should call all our chips and risk our tournament with K♥ T♠
This is a tough one because our tournament life is definitely worth something right? I mean we might get Aces in the next orbit! But we don’t want to be passing up +EV spots where we will win money in the long run in Poker, this is a close spot I wanted to look at and discuss ranges and what we should be looking to call with.
This spot is made slightly tougher because two big stacks have moved all in, the first from the Cut-Off and then that player is instantly isolated by the Button, 16BBs in a normal game might not be much, but this hand is from a hyper-turbo where the stacks are shallow so 16BBs is actually a large stack in this game with the average stack being around just 6BBs.
Let’s look at the Math of this Spot
If we call off our remaining 33,652 chips we can look to win a total of 137,100 chips.
This means we will need above 24.58% equity on average in this pot to profitably make this call.
We could be in a good position having at least one live card against two pairs… if we are ever sharing a card with an opponent our equity will drop to around 8-18%
However, there may be times when our hand will be up against two hands we do well against and then we may have something like 29% equity, even against solid holdings.
However these are just some of the best or worst-case scenarios I could come up with, we can’t really think like this whilst in-game, we need to have an idea of how well our hand will do against certain shoving ranges to get a grasp on our average equity.
Let’s take a look at what most aggressive players would shove 16BBs from the Cut-Off with…
So we give this range 55+ KJs+ A9s+ & AJo+
This is a reasonable range for this position to be risking all their chips with, especially given there is only one player behind having them covered.
Re-Jamming Range
The player isolating this range from the Button will have a much tighter range though, as they have no fold equity, let’s take a look at a typical calling range for this stack depth…
This range will look something like 99+ KQs+ AQ0+ & AJs+
So given these ranges, we need to know how much equity we will have versus these players with our KTo…
So against these ranges, we will have 21.5% equity when we will need 24.58% to call off so it would be a -EV play for us to risk our stack with this holding in this three-way pot.
How did this hand pan out?
So after making the disciplined laydown, feeling that we weren’t going to be in good enough shape in the long run in this spot let’s see what hands they ended up showing down…
As it turns out we would have had somewhat decent equity in this pot with a Live overcard to both pairs…
Against these exact holdings we were actually getting the right price needing 24.58% we would have had 24.82% if we had called so it would have been a slightly +EV play for us, but still very, very close indeed even if we could see the hands face up it would be a tough call to make.
Hand analysis like this is a good technique to use to get better at playing similar spots like this that may come up in future.
You can do this with hands from your own games, just save the hand history or request it be sent in the settings of your poker client and use tools the PokerCruncher App as we did in this range breakdown to calculate your equity.
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